Fantasy Baseball MLB

Two-Start Pitchers: Week Four (8/10-8/16)

Two-Start Pitchers: Week Four: Randy Dobnak

Each Sunday, I’ll be taking a look at the two-start pitchers you should get into your lineups, and a few to stay away from. I’ve split them up into must start, should start, could start, and don’t start. These are just a guideline, but it’s what I will be following as I set my lineups for Week Four of the fantasy baseball season. Also, I’ll give you my Streamer of the Week. Let’s dive in.

STREAMER OF THE WEEK

Randy Dobnak, MIN (@MIL, KC)

(50% CBS, 28% Yahoo, 27% ESPN)

Randy Dobnak has been a welcome surprise to the Minnesota Twins rotation in 2020, and it appears he is going to be around for a while. That’s great news for fantasy managers in Week Four as he takes on two of the weakest offenses in the league. Through three starts, the right-handed pitcher is strutting a 2-1 record, with a 0.60 ERA and 0.87 WHIP with eight strikeouts in 15 innings.

Looking at his advanced stats raises a lot of red flags. Dobnak is outperforming his expected stats by an alarming amount. That would push him out of streamer territory in most weeks, but he faces two of the weakest offenses in baseball this week. He also is an extreme groundball pitcher (68.2%), and he pulled this exact same trick in 12 games last season. The 25-year-old could be a pitcher that doesn’t play by the advanced metrics rules. Plus, with the Twins offense behind him, he is likely to end up with a couple of wins this week.

His Opponents

Dobnak’s first opponent is Milwaukee Brewers who are in free fall at the moment. They lead the league in strikeouts per game (11.00) and struck out 16 times versus the Cincinnati Reds on Friday. They rank inside the bottom 10 in runs per game, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wrc+. That is not a good cocktail for an offense, but it is excellent for Dobnak. I picked on the Kansas City Royals last week with Alec Mills, and, unfortunately, it seemed to wake them up over the weekend. They have managed to put up 8.3 runs per game in their Thursday-Saturday games, but I still like Dobnak to limit them in a home start.

Dobnak does not have the same ceiling that a lot of the two-start pitchers have this week, but he has a solid floor. He won’t hurt you in the ratios and has a great chance to go 2-0. It’s still early enough in the season that fantasy managers shouldn’t feel the pressure to swing for the fences every week. Dobnak is a start for me in roto and points leagues. Good luck in Week Four!

MUST START

Max Scherzer, WAS (@NYM, @BAL)

Patrick Corbin, WAS (@NYM, @BAL)

Aaron Nola, PHI (ATL, NYM)

Ross Stripling, LAD (SD, @LAA)

Zack Wheeler, PHI (BAL, NYM)

Dustin May, LAD (SD, @LAA)

SHOULD START

Dylan Bundy, LAA (OAK, LAD)

Lance McCullers Jr., HOU (SF, SEA)

Dinelson Lamet, SD (@LAD, @ARI)

Dallas Keuchel, CHW (@DET, STL)

Randy Dobnak, MIN (@MIL, KC)

Adrian Houser, MIL (MIN, @CHC)

Tyler Mahle, CIN (KC, PIT)

Sean Manaea, OAK (@LAA, @SF)

Garrett Richards, SD (@LAD, @ARI)

COULD START 

Ryan Yarbrough, TB (@BOS, @TOR)

Kyle Gibson, TEX (SEA, @COL)

Jon Gray, COL (ARI, TEX)

Steven Matz, NYM (WAS, @PHI)

Trevor Williams, PIT (@STL, @CIN)

DON’T START

Robbie Ray, ARI (@COL, SD)

Josh Lindblom (MIN, @CHC)

Elieser Hernandez, MIA (@TOR, ATL)

Sean Newcomb, ATL (@PHI, @MIA)

Michael Fulmer, DET (CHW, CLE)

Alex Cobb, BAL (@PHI, WAS)

Julio Teheran, LAA (OAK, LAD)

Rick Porcello, NYM (WAS, @PHI)

Martin Perez, BOS (TB, @NYY)

Logan Webb, SF (@HOU, OAK)

JT Brubaker, PIT (@STL, @ CIN)

Questions and comments?
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