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NFL DFS: Super Bowl Sunday Special

Joey Ricotta & Brandon Braasch | February 1st, 2020 

Welcome to Super Bowl Sunday. There will be all kinds of money switching hands so good luck with all your bets. If your Super Bowl squares don’t hit or your favorite prop bet didn’t go as planned maybe your DFS roster will win you some money back.

Joey and Brandon are here to give you some Captain/MVP, locks values and dart throw plays for FanDuel and DraftKings single game/showdown contests. So without further ado, let’s dive in!

Captain/MVP

Joey: Raheem Mostert ($14,100 DK Captain,$9,400 DK,$13,500 FD)

Maybe this is the most obvious pick on the board after his ridiculous record-breaking performance against the Green Bay Packers, but I think the price and situation are worth it here. The 49ers love to run the ball, averaging the second-most rushing attempts per game this season, along with an astronomical 44.5 rushing attempts per game this postseason. What better way to keep a highly dangerous offense and quarterback off the field than to run the ball and control the time of possession? Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans were unable to do so, but that doesn’t mean the Chiefs’ run D is all of the sudden top notch. They ranked 29th (fourth-worst) in terms of DVOA against the run this season. The Titans abandoned the running game in the second half once they fell behind.

Brandon: Jimmy Garoppolo ($12,000 DK Captain, $8,000 DK, $14,000 FD)

Garoppolo has been able to just cruise through the playoffs. The run game has been dominate and there hasn’t been a need for him to throw the ball around. That’s not going to be the case in this game. He will have to make throws and I fully expect him to have a great game. The Chiefs were a lot better against the pass in the regular season. However, they showed they can slow down run games like the Titans game. They will focus on stopping the run game and force Garoppolo to make the plays. That is why I’ll be playing Jimmy G at the Captain/MVP slots and hopefully, he takes me to the top of the leaderboards.

Lock

Joey: Patrick Mahomes ($12,600 DK, $16,000 FD)

No matter what, Mahomes will be popular. Whether you believe he will have a ton of success or not, the pass attempts are guaranteed to be there, barring the Chiefs embarrassing the 49ers, which I don’t see happening. The 49ers’ defense ranked second in the league and are a large reason why they’ve made it to this point. Nonetheless, to win the biggest game on the biggest stage, would you rather trust your MVP caliber quarterback or a running back that didn’t have a solidified starting role for much of the season? You have to think Mahomes will factor into scoring one way or another.

Brandon: Tyreek Hill ($11,000 DK, $12,000 FD)

The Cheetah finally got his first postseason receiving touchdown in the AFC championship game. He then added another one and finished the game with two. Look for him to keep it going this week. He has lightning quick speed and if this game ends up being a shootout like I expect, he will no doubt be apart of the scoring. Mahomes loves throwing him the ball and he’s got the speed to let Mahomes use his big arm. Look for Hill to make an early impact as the Chiefs try to get him going early.

Value

Joey: Robbie Gould ($4,000 DK, 9,000 FD)

This is specifically a DraftKings play. His price on FanDuel doesn’t warrant using him. Robbie has been a machine since returning from injury in week 13. Since then, he’s successfully converted 14 of 15 field goal attempts. Scrounging for value might lead to a lot of people favoring the defenses. However, if there aren’t a lot of turnovers, the points won’t be there. Gould is one of the best kickers of all-time and could provide a solid floor. And of course, being a Bears fan and him being a former Bear, I’m rooting for him to get a Super Bowl victory.

Brandon: Emmanuel Sanders ($5,200 DK, $7,500 FD)

I have been waiting for Sanders to break out in every playoff game. The game script has not allowed him to do that because they have not trailed in the playoffs yet. Garoppolo has only thrown 27 passes, completing 18 of those. Sanders only has two receptions for 33 yards. Even if they don’t trail in this game I’m still expecting a shootout and a lot of passes being thrown. Look for Sanders to bounce back and have a huge game along with Garoppolo.

Dart Throw

Joey: Demarcus Robinson ($2,600 DK, $6,500 FD)

Robinson is a speed burner and could go relatively unnoticed with the defense being forced to respect Hill, Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins. Robinson has averaged 2.5 targets per game over the last six weeks. We’ll see what head coach Andy Reid has cooked up in his bag of tricks. All it takes is one big play from Robinson to hit value.

Brandon: Kyle Juszczyk ($1,200 DK, $6,000 FD)

The super bowl is a great time to pull out all the trick plays. Juszczyk is one of the few fullbacks left in the NFL. All of the 49ers players respect him and know he’s a big part of there rushing game. Since 2017 when he joined the 49ers he has 83 receptions. They use him in the slot and as a receiver out of the backfield. They could even use him on goal-line situations and sneak the handoff to him instead of going to the running back. Juszczyk is a long shot but if he does steal a touchdown he could be exactly what you need especially in big tournaments.

Good luck with your final NFL showdown lineups of this season. It has been fun providing you with NFL DFS advice all season long. Enjoy Super Bowl Sunday and good luck with all your bets. Feel free to check out our Scorecrow writers’ super bowl predictions tomorrow afternoon.

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