NFL

Week 16 NFL Picks: Spreads, Props and More

Mike Fanelli | December 20th, 2019

Two weeks to go in the 2019 NFL season and the playoff picture is starting to come together. The most important game this week is between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. The winner of that game will control their destiny in the NFC East division race. With several critical games this week now is the time to put down some money to buy extra Christmas presents.

To recap last week, Mike struggled, going 6-8-1 ATS and just 1-2 on his favorite bets as he was able to cash the Bengals’ team total under 15.5 as they scored just 13 points despite scoring 10 points in the first quarter. Meanwhile, Gio had an excellent week, going 10-4-1 ATS and 2-1 on his favorite bets as Chris Carson had a big day, scoring two touchdowns allowing him to cash his favorite prop bet. In total, Mike went 7-10-1 (41.7% hit rate) while Gio went 12-5-1 (69.4%) on their 18 bets from last week.

Unfortunately, Gio is out again this week so Mike is flying solo and will give his takes on the over/under for every game. Remember, Mike isn’t a professional better nor does he know everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how he does in week 16.

Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions. All bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Game

Over/Under

Texans -3

Texans -3 at Buccaneers

Over 50

Bills +6.5

Bills +6.5 at Patriots

Under 37.5

Rams +6.5

Rams +6.5 at 49ers

Under 44

Ravens -9.5

Ravens -9.5 at Browns

Over 49

Titans +2.5

Saints -2.5 at Titans

Over 50

Jets +3.5

Steelers -3.5 at Jets

Under 37.5

Panthers +6.5

Panthers +6.5 at Colts

Under 47

Jaguars +7

Jaguars +7 at Falcons

Over 46.5

Redskins -2

Giants +2 at Redskins

Over 41

Bengals -1

Bengals -1 at Dolphins

Under 46.5

Broncos -6.5

Lions +6.5 at Broncos

Under 38.5

Raiders +6.5

Raiders +6.5 at Chargers

Under 45

Eagles +2.5

Cowboys -2.5 at Eagles

Under 46.5

Cardinals +9.5

Cardinals +9.5 at Seahawks

Over 51

Chiefs -6

Chiefs -6 at Bears

Under 44.5

Packers +5.5

Packers +5.5 at Vikings

Under 46.5

Favorite Spread Bet

Packers +0.5 in the first quarter (-115)

The Packers have been one of the better first-quarter teams this season. They average 7.5 points per game in the first quarter and have led after the first quarter in nine of 14 games this season. Add in the one tie and the Packers have only trailed at the end of the first quarter four times or just in 28.6% of their games this season. Furthermore, the Packers the Vikings led 14-0 at the end of the first quarter in week two. Meanwhile, the Vikings average just 6.1 points per game in the first quarter this season and will likely be without Dalvin Cook for this game. The extra half point protects you from a tie at the end of the quarter and at the -115 price, I’ll happily take that.

Favorite Over/Under Bet

Steelers at Jets under 37.5 (-110)

Both of these offenses struggle to consistently score points and I expect this to be a low scoring defensive battle. Both teams rank in the bottom eight in scoring this season. The Jets average just 17.6 points per game while the Steelers average 19.2 per game. However, the Steelers are averaging just 17.7 points per game over their last three games, all of which Devlin Hodges has started. Furthermore, the total in three of the last four Jets’ games has gone under the total while the eight of the last nine Steelers’ games have gone under the total, including six straight. This game has a 17-13 final written all over it and with the alternate line under at 30.5 paying out at +220, I’d be tempted to play that line instead.

Favorite Prop Bet

Ravens’ team total over 3.5 touchdowns (+130)

This number may seem high as the Ravens have to score over 3.5 touchdowns and not over 28 points. However, the Ravens have scored four or more touchdowns in 50% of their games this season. They scored three touchdowns back in week four in their loss against the Browns. Furthermore, the Ravens have scored over 3.5 touchdowns in five of their last seven games. The Ravens would like nothing more than to get revenge on the Browns while locking up the top seed in the AFC playoffs. If the Ravens win on Sunday, they will likely rest Lamar Jackson next week in a meaningless game against the Steelers. With a few extra days to rest and prepare, expect the hot Ravens’ offense to keep up their play and score plenty this week.

Questions and comments?

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