Joey Ricotta | November 3rd, 2019
Alright, it’s time to cook up some winning lineups after some solid picks last week. Can you believe after this week, we will be more than halfway through the regular season? Hopefully, last week you were able to construct a nice winning lineup based on some of the plays mentioned in last week’s article. However, you aren’t here to reminisce about last week.
The goal of the cash game article is to outline some of the safer plays, while also, providing options that will help you create the most optimal builds. The whole point of it all is to make some money. Sometimes we won’t, but putting ourselves in the best position to do so is the most important part. That goes without saying, but can sometimes get overshadowed by the results on a week to week basis.
All people want to know is how many points a guy scored, and not necessarily the route in which they got there. DFS is not only a science but a math equation. Let’s dive in, put the pieces together, and try to solve it. Here are my favorite Cash Game Plays for Week Nine.
Disclaimer: As always, there will be a lock emoji next to a few of my favorite plays. All of the guys mentioned are viable for cash games, but the ones with a lock emoji are going to be fixtures in my main lineup.
Derek Carr ($5,500 DK, $7,300 FD)
Carr hasn’t been great and you won’t normally hear me advocating his services. However, I think he’s done enough to warrant rostering given the right matchup and the right price. The Detroit Lions have been getting shredded on the ground and through the air. Through seven games, they’ve allowed the most passing yards per game (289.7). The Lions rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass. The Oakland Raiders have a Vegas team expected total over 26 points, and with the Lions’ heavy passing attack, this game has the potential to shootout. With that potential, it also comes a bit of a higher floor.
Brandon Allen ($4,100 DK, $6,000 FD)
Allen is an extreme punt play and with some of the value on the slate, I’m not entirely sure that you need to go there. But, honestly, I don’t really give a crap how good this kid is. He’s a quarterback at nearly $4,000 on DraftKings. Need I say more? The odds of him actually hurting you for playing him are a lot less than you think. While you might see a goose egg from time to time at other positions, the quarterback is the one spot where it is very rare.
There are obvious reasons why you wouldn’t play him, like, if you feel a quarterback with a higher price tag is an absolute must-have and they’re going to go off this week, or if you have the salary to use on an upgrade. Otherwise, this is a real option. I’ve seen and done crazier things that have worked. You will have no problems fitting in some high-priced running backs.
Value (Other than Allen): Philip Rivers
Dalvin Cook ($9,500 DK, $9,000 FD) 🔒
You can always pay up for Christian McCaffrey, and you might still be able to do so if you choose to, in the same lineup as Dalvin Cook. However, Cook is the guy that I’m making sure I’m getting in no matter what. I understand Run CMC’s incredible floor and how he looks to be matchup proof. Cook has been nearly as reliable this season and gets a good enough matchup where I trust he’ll produce. The Kansas City Chiefs are allowing the second-most DK points per game (32.72 pts), according to fantasydata.com. Cook is getting 26.1 DK points per game and is a huge part of the Minnesota Vikings’ offense. The stats are one thing, but Cook is really an explosive force with the ball in his hands. I don’t mind spending more money on good food. When Cook is cooking, the food tastes wonderful. As Cook eats on Sunday, so should we. Pay up for him.
Le’Veon Bell ($7,700 DK, $7,000 FD)
Bell hasn’t rushed for more than 70 yards in a game this season. New York Jets head coach Adam Gase came out and said that they need to get Bell more touches. If there’s a perfect team opponent for a running back get-right spot, it’s the Miami Dolphins. They’ve allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (160.4), and the third-most DK points per game (31.71). It might not feel safe, given his lack of production lately, but the matchup is about as safe as it gets.
Jaylen Samuels ($4,000 DK, $5,000 FD) 🔒
Samuels is expected to have a significantly increased role for the Pittsburgh Steelers’ tilt against the Indianapolis Colts. James Conner left Monday night’s game against the Miami Dolphins with a shoulder injury. Rookie running back Benny Snell Jr. also left Monday’s game with a knee injury. Snell has already been ruled out, and Conner is doubtful after not practicing all week. The matchup against the Colts looks like a smash spot. The Colts rank 29th in DVOA against the run.
This may be a bit of a reach because I don’t know how many people actually look at these things when choosing players on DraftKings, but if you look at Samuels, you’ll see his opponent rank is colored red and labeled sixth. I think the Colts have been far worse than that number says they are, and Samuels gets a heavy dose of work in the passing game whenever he’s used as the main back, which gives him a very nice floor on full PPR sites like DraftKings.
Value: Mark Walton (Don’t love it)
Tyler Lockett ($7,500 DK and FD)/D.K. Metcalf ($5,700 DK, $6,700 FD) 🔒
You know my style. If I’m not paying up for the most popular quarterback in what seems to be the best matchup on the slate, I want to get the weapons around him in cash games. That’s how I like to counterattack. Lockett is absolutely Russell Wilson’s favorite target, although Metcalf finally got some touchdown action last week in Atlanta. On only three catches for 13 yards, Metcalf caught two of those for TDs. Lockett, is the most reliable Seahawks receiver and most likely to have a huge game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are very stout against the run and completely opposite against the pass, allowing the second-most passing yards per game (285.9). Vegas has this game pegged as the highest over/under on the main slate. I want one of these two receivers in my cash lineup and both in tournaments. To me, they are almost interchangeable. Nonetheless, if you have the salary remaining, I’d pay up for Lockett.
Mike Williams ($4,600 DK, $5,700 FD) 🔒
For Williams, like many others, it’s about volume and red-zone targets. The Green Bay secondary isn’t as good as it seems. They are 19th in passing yards allowed per game (251.8). Williams is tied with Keenan Allen for the team lead with 10 red-zone targets. Unlike Keenan Allen and four other Chargers receivers, Williams has yet to convert any of those red-zone targets for touchdowns. He has positive TD regression written all over him. And if you buy into air yards, Williams is currently sitting seventh in TAY (average targeted air yards). Williams’ price, upside, and floor are too good. He’s a lock for me.
Jarvis Landry ($4,500 DK, $6,200 FD)
To be clear, I like him more on full point PPR (points per reception) sites like DraftKings and not as much on sites like FanDuel. The Denver Broncos are better against the pass than they are the run, but Landry should get a steady diet of targets. Broncos shut down cornerback, Chris Harris has already said he wants to guard Odell Beckham. I’m thinking he’ll be on him for the majority of the day. Because of that, Isaac Yiadom or Duke Dawson will be the most likely candidates to guard Landry who lines up in the slot more times than not, which should be a nice safety valve for Baker Mayfield. On top of that, Landry is receiving over seven targets per game for the season.
Darren Waller ($6,300 DK, $6,800 FD)
If you’re spending up at Tight End this week, Waller is the clear option, in my opinion. Now, I don’t necessarily think you need to spend up at the position, but if it makes you feel more comfortable, this is where I’d go. Waller has been amazing in his Rookie season. He was someone I was targeting late in season-long drafts because of the potential he flashed in the preseason, and the rave reviews he was receiving from his coaching staff and teammates. Last week, was kind of a down week for Waller. He still caught a touchdown pass and nearly put together another double-digit DK points outing. He’s only been targeted less than seven times once this season, and he still received five targets.
Noah Fant ($3,000 DK, $4,600 FD)
The Denver Broncos receiving situation was one I was monitoring closely last Sunday, interested to see who would see an increase in volume after the trade of Emmanuel Sanders. I suspected it would be DaeSean Hamilton and I was wrong. Fant was the beneficiary, receiving nine targets and hauling in five for minimal yardage. The yardage is concerning, however, I think the target number is real and will continue to be there.
That gives Fant a very high floor, along with having positive TD regression coming. You would imagine anyway. Fant has the tools to succeed and has received praise from many analysts, for good reason. If you play in dynasty leagues, Fant was one of the higher thought of rookie draft choices. We haven’t seen a big explosion game from him yet and I think the training wheels are starting to come off.
Another Option: Hunter Henry
Value: Jonnu Smith
New York Jets ($3,500 DK, $4,600 FD)
No duh. Play whoever faces the Dolphins every week. You are bound to be right more times than not. Usually, the team opposing the Dolphins is priced up around the $4,000 and up range. Being that the Jets aren’t very good themselves, their price reached kind of a happy medium area. They aren’t normally a trustworthy unit, but the matchup indicates that they will be this week.
Carolina Panthers ($2,800 DK, $4,000 FD)
It’s all about sack potential and turnovers. Ryan Tannehill has been decent since taking over for Marcus Mariota, but he’s not spectacular. Carolina ranks first in the NFL with 4.3 sacks per game. The Tennessee Titans are second-worst in the league in sack percentage allowed (12.50%). The two of those don’t mix very well for the Titans and quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Although they are dealing with some injuries, if the stats hold true, the Panthers should be able to create pressure. Pressure equals turnovers.
Other Options: Denver Broncos (vs CLE), Buffalo Bills (vs WAS)
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