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NFL

Week Nine NFL Picks: Spreads, Props and More

Mike Fanelli & Givanni Damico | November 2nd, 2019

The 2019 NFL trade deadline was Tuesday but it was a quiet day as only Aqib Talib was traded in a salary dump move by the Los Angeles Rams. However, on Monday, the Miami Dolphins traded Kenyan Drake to the Arizona Cardinals for a conditional sixth-round draft pick. On Thursday night, Drake had his best game of the year, totaling 19 touches for 162 scrimmage yards. The San Francisco 49ers won the game 28-25 but the game was much closer than the 9.5 or 10 points the road team was favored by.

To recap last week, both guys had a solid week. Mike went 7-6-1 ATS but just 1-2 on his favorite bets as Josh Allen‘s two passing touchdowns just hit the over, saving Mike from an 0-3 week on his favorite bets. Meanwhile, Gio went 6-7-1 ATS and also 1-2 on his favorite bets after Kenny Stills came up one catch short of Gio hitting his over 3.5 catch prop bet. In total, Mike went 8-8-1 (50% hit rate) while Gio went 7-9-1 (44% hit rate) on our 17 bets from last week. However, either of us are professional betters nor know everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how we do in week nine.

Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions.

Mike

Game

Gio

Jaguars +1.5

Texans -1.5 at Jaguars (in London)

Texans -1.5

Colts +1

Colts +1 at Steelers

Colts +1

Bills -9

Redskins +9 at Bills

Bills -9

Eagles -5

Bears +5 at Eagles

Eagles -5

Dolphins +3.5

Jets -3.5 at Dolphins

Jets -3.5

Titans +3.5

Titans +3.5 at Panthers

Panthers -3.5

Vikings -2.5

Vikings -2.5 at Chiefs

Vikings -2.5

Buccaneers +5.5

Buccaneers +5.5 at Seahawks

Seahawks -5.5

Lions +2

Lions +2 at Raiders

Lions +2

Packers -3.5

Packers -3.5 at Chargers

Packers -3.5

Broncos +3.5

Browns -3.5 at Broncos

Broncos +3.5

Patriots -3

Patriots -3 at Ravens

Patriots -3

Giants +7.5

Cowboys -7.5 at Giants

Cowboys -7.5

Favorite Spread Bet

Mike – Jets at Dolphins +3.5

I expect the Jets to win this game but by no more than a field goal, allowing the Dolphins to still cover. Over their last three games, the Dolphins have covered the spread in all three, including just 5.5 against the Redskins (where they lost 17-16). The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS against current playoff teams but are 2-1 ATS against teams currently out of the playoff picture. Meanwhile, the Jets have the second worse record ATS this year at 2-5 and they have only covered the spread once since week four. Furthermore, in their two matchups last year (against a much better Dolphins team) the spread for both games was -3, one time in the Jets favor, the other in the Dolphins favor.

Why is it just -3.5 this year when the Dolphins have been on average 14 point underdogs? Could the Dolphins get their first win of the year? Maybe, but if you want to back the Jets here I would either take them on the money line at -177 or take an alternate spread down to -2.5 at -150, this should be a close game and end with the Jets winning by a field goal or less.

Gio – Packers -3.5 at Chargers

The Chargers are such a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team. One week they’ll be on fire and beat a good team, then they’ll lose to a bad team at home. This week, they won’t stand a chance against Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and the Packers. With how poorly the Chargers have been playing, I’m surprised the line is as low as it is, but who knows? Maybe the Chargers will shock us all tomorrow and shut down the MVP contender in Rodgers and the Super Bowl contenders.

Favorite Over/Under Bet

Mike – Cowboys at Giants over 47.5

For both of these teams, the over hits about 50% of the time which isn’t surprising. The Cowboys average 27.1 points per game while giving up 17.7 on average. The Giants average 19.8 per game while giving up 27.3 on average. At first glance, this roughly suggests a Cowboys’ victory 27-18, which would hit the under by just 2.5 points. On top of that, the Cowboys average total game score is 44.9 while the Giants is 47, again suggesting this line is around where it should be. In their week one matchup, the over/under was set at 44 and the game ended with a Cowboys victory 35-17. The 52 points scored in that game would hit the over this week by five points.

The Cowboys have scored at least 24 points in six of their seven games this year and in their victories, they are averaging 33.5 points per game. Meanwhile, the Giants struggled out of the gate with Eli Manning under center, averaging just 15.5 points per game. Since the Giants made the switch to Daniel Jones in week three, they are averaging 21.2 points per game. The Cowboys are expected to win the game fairly easily (I, however, disagree with that) and if they scored their average points per win and the Giants score their average with Jones under center, the total will be 54.7 and easily hitting the over by a little more than a touchdown.

Gio – Lions at Raiders over 50.5

Neither of these teams play very good defense. The Lions struggle both against the run and the pass while the Raiders have the worst passing defense in football. This could be one of those trap games where you expect it to be high-scoring, but the defenses decide to show up. I’m cautiously optimistic that this will live up to the hype and cover the over/under. Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr have looked better than ever lately and they have surrounded themselves with weapons.

Favorite Prop Bet

Mike – Highest scoring quarter in the Buccaneers at Seahawks game: second quarter

Usually, prop bets have to do with players getting so many catches or throwing so many touchdowns but this week I’m mixing it up and going with a highest-scoring quarter prop bet. The game between the Buccaneers and Seahawks is a matchup between two of the slowest starting teams in the NFL this season. Both teams average less than five points per game in the first quarter. However, both teams’ offense starts to get rolling after that. Both scoring an average of over 10 points per game in the second quarter.

Buccaneers Seahawks Total
1st Quarter 4.6 4.1 8.7
2nd Quarter 10.4 10.5 20.9
3rd Quarter 5 3.5 8.5
4th Quarter 8 7.9 15.9

The chart above shows the Buccaneers and Seahawks both struggle to start both halves but pick up their play in the second and fourth quarters. Both teams rank in the top four in points scoring in the second quarter this year. Given that little defense is expected to play, as the total is the highest of the week, this trend of high scoring second quarters should continue and at +155, it’s a solid return too.

Gio – Zach Pascal scores and the Colts win

This can’t be one or the other. Pascal has to score and the Colts have to win. T.Y. Hilton won’t be playing which potentially makes Pascal the WR1. The Steelers’ defense has held their own this year, but I expect a big game from Pascal and Jacoby Brissett. With Hilton out for at least three weeks, Pascal, as well as Parris Campbell, should be guys you look to in deeper fantasy leagues as well as in DFS.

Questions and comments?

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Main Image Credit:

Embed from Getty Images
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