NFL

Week Eight NFL Picks: Spreads, Props and More

Mike Fanelli & Givanni Damico | October 26th, 2019

Thursday night’s game between the Washington Redskins and Minnesota Vikings wasn’t as entertaining as we had hoped. The Vikings won the game 19-9 as the two teams combined for just one touchdown but seven field goals. In most places, the line was Vikings -16.5 and they didn’t come close to covering it. Despite Case Keenum leaving the game at halftime because of a concussion, the Vikings outscored the Redskins by just three points in the second half. Needless to say, anyone who backed the Vikings -16.5 was left very disappointed in Kirk Cousins and the Vikings’ effort in the second half.

To recap last week, both guys struggled. Mike went 5-8 ATS and just 1-2 on his favorite bets while Gio went 6-7 ATS and also 1-2 on his favorite bets after Cooper Kupp came up one catch short of Gio hitting his over 6.5 catch prop bet. In total, Mike went 6-10 (37.5% hit rate) while Gio went 7-9 (43.8% hit rate) on our 16 bets from last week. However, either of us are professional betters nor know everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how we do in week eight.

Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions.

Mike

Game

Gio

Seahawks -7

Seahawks -7 at Falcons

Seahawks -7

Colts -5

Broncos +5 at Colts

Colts -5

Saints -10.5

Cardinals +10.5 at Saints

Saints -10.5

Chargers +3.5

Chargers +3.5 at Bears

 Chargers +3.5

Jets +6.5

Jets +6.5 at Jaguars

Jaguars -6.5

Rams -12.5

Bengals +12.5 at Rams (in London)

Rams -12.5

Lions -6.5

Giants +6.5 at Lions

Lions -6.5

Buccaneers +2.5

Buccaneers +2.5 at Titans

Buccaneers +2.5

Eagles +1.5

Eagles +1.5 at Bills

Bills -1.5

Panthers +5.5

Panthers +5.5 at 49ers

Panthers +5.5

Texans -7

Raiders +7 at Texans

Texans -7

Patriots -11.5

Browns +11.5 at Patriots

Patriots -11.5

Packers -4

Packers -4 at Chiefs

Packers -4

Dolphins +14

Dolphins +14 at Steelers

Steelers -14

Favorite Spread Bet

Mike – Colts -5 vs Broncos

I don’t understand this line. Over the last two weeks, the Colts defeated the Chiefs by six and the Texans by seven. Those teams are two of the best in the AFC and have nine combined wins while the Broncos have two wins. The Colts are at home while the Broncos have to travel across time zones for a 1 pm EST kickoff. After trading away Emmanuel Sanders, the Broncos realize their playoff chances are slim to none. The Colts know they can’t let their half-game lead in the AFC South slip away so I expect them to come out and dominate the Broncos. I would take the Colts up to 8.5 to 9.5 points, I think they win by double digits.

Gio – Patriots -11.5 vs. Browns

I love how Jarvis Landry is all bark but no bite. He, Odell Beckham, and Baker Mayfield can talk all the talk they want, but they’re not following it up. Landry guaranteed a win which almost ensures that Cleveland will get blown out. Baker is in for a rough day against this Patriots defense who isn’t weak anywhere, and Nick Chubb won’t be his crutch. Outside of Myles Garrett, the Browns’ defense hasn’t impressed this year, so the Patriots should be able to put up points and outperform Cleveland on both sides of the football.

Favorite Over/Under Bet

Mike – Cardinals at Saints over 47.5

This line is almost exactly the same as the Cardinals and Saints season averages combined. Ironically, both teams average 23.4 points per game but over the last three weeks both teams are on a three-game winning streak and their scoring average has gone up. The Cardinals are averaging 29 points per game while the Saints are averaging 26.7 per game during their winning streaks. Furthermore, Drew Brees is expected to play for the Saints this week, making their offense even more dangerous at home. I expect the Saints to win this game fairly easily, meaning they will score plenty early and allow the Cardinals plenty of garbage time points. Both offenses can put up points and both defenses can struggle at times. This game could end up with a total over 60.

Gio – Jets at Jaguars under 40.5

Neither of these teams has a lot of firepower on the offensive side of the ball. Gardner Minshew will look for a bounce-back week against a team that got absolutely dominated by terrific Tom Brady and the Patriots. Le’Veon Bell hasn’t been able to get any momentum going in the backfield while Sam Darnold is seeing more ghosts than Kid Cudi. The Jaguars should win this game but it won’t be an offensive show.

Favorite Prop Bet

Mike – Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns

At plus +200, this is a bet I really like the return on. Over the last two games, Allen has thrown for two touchdowns in both contests against the Titans and Dolphins. While that doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for the over to hit, the Eagles secondary gives up an average of two passing touchdowns per game and have given up five over the last two weeks. Furthermore, quarterbacks have thrown for two or more touchdowns against the Eagles in 57.1% of their games this season. Allen has developed a nice rhythm with John Brown and I wouldn’t be surprised if Allen connects with Brown for two touchdowns tomorrow.

Gio – Kenny Stills over 3.5 catches

With Will Fuller out of the picture, Stills has moved up to number two on the depth chart. He faces a Raiders team that traded the only notable player in their secondary to the Texans this week. Deshaun Watson throws the ball a lot and in a game that has shootout potential, Stills should draw plenty of targets. As long as Keke Coutee doesn’t steal reps from Stills, he should be in line for a big day.

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