Kevin Walsh | October 26th, 2019
All my plays are based on DraftKings pricing. Its also important to note that when I list a player as a fade, I do not mean I will have 0% of them, but I will be way under the field as far as exposure goes, and likely will not play them on single entry lineups.
This week has just two games with a total over 50, so there are not a ton of total game stacks I am looking to use this week. If I had to make an exception:
This game stack is contingent on Ryan playing this week because we have NO idea what we can expect out of Matt Schaub. Despite uncertain news on Ryan, the total for this game is the highest this week so let’s assume he is playing.
Both teams are hardly known for playing any sort of defense this season, but both offenses do tend to put up the numbers and the points. Seattle is certainly the better team, so that should put Atlanta in catch-up mode, and their target tree got a bit narrower with Mohamed Sanu moving on to greener pastures.
This is the best we got this week for a game stack, unfortunately.
It could be the absolute trap of the week, but if we get some solid performances out of Winston and Tannehill, this could end up being a firestorm of points going back and forth. Winston’s weapons are excellent and polished. Tannehill has a veteran presence and was particularly efficient last week.
This is a HUGE risk, but I will have some shares of this game as a stack because it’s one of the few that have any potential at all to shoot out.
Honorable Mentions: ARI/NO
POSITION BY POSITION
I will refrain from continuing to mention the same players across sections, so these will be more about other players I am interested in outside of big game stacks. I will try to pick a player or two in each pricing tier (High, Middle, Low).
Deshaun Watson ($7,100)
The Texans have now fallen behind in the division to the Colts, and they need to get a win at home this week. Will Fuller looks to be out, but his weapons are just as good as always. The important part here is that Watson has a lot of value in his legs, and he likes to use them. He should be a top-three play this week.
Matthew Stafford ($6,100)
Kerryon Johnson hits injured reserve however the offense didn’t seem to notice a ton last week when Stafford was dropping dimes to Marvin Jones all day. I would imagine this offense shifts a bit more towards the passing game this week unless Ty Johnson decides to run this team over. Kenny Golladay had a weak outing last week but he is still the primary target in this offense. The Lions need to beat a team like the Giants if they expect to compete in their tough division, so I expect Stafford to air it out to ensure victory at home on Sunday.
VALUE – Ryan Tannehill ($5,100)
Many people seem to be looking here for cash, and for good reason. Tannehill was very efficient last week, and his matchup doesn’t get much worse against the Buccaneers. Considering Tannehill would love to get a stranglehold on the starting job for the Titans going forward, he looks to impress Coach Mike Vrabel and continue his solid play.
Saquon Barkley ($8,900)
The Giants are struggling and they only have one man to lean on these situations – Barkley. They face a reasonable Lions defense that has been strong at stopping the passing game but taking a bit of a licking in the ground game. I think Matt Patricia will hone in on him a bit, but Barkley still performs under bad circumstances. He has a better matchup than Christian McCaffrey does for $300 less, so he is my pay-up target this week.
Chris Carson ($7,000)
Carson seems to have solved his fumbling issues and finds himself facing a Falcons defense that is getting torched in every facet of the game. If Ryan ends up being out for the game, the Seahawks could be pounding the ball away to kill the clock and get the hell out of Atlanta with a win. Even if Ryan is in, Carson is a solid choice at the middle tier of pricing.
Tevin Coleman ($5,000)
What does it take for DraftKings to price him up appropriately? I get that he is in some sort of three-headed monster running back committee in San Francisco, but anyone who watches the games knows that he is the top dog here. Kyle Shanahan loved this guy back in Atlanta, which is why he recruited him in the offseason. Add that Breida can’t stay out of the injury tent, and it becomes pretty clear that Coleman should be getting most of the work here. The price is awful low for the workload, and they love to run the ball. Not much to hate here.
VALUE – Ty Johnson ($4,900)
This week’s injury-related chalk, Johnson takes over for Kerryon as he heads off to injured reserve. My real issue lies in the fact that we don’t really know how many snaps or touches he will see, but his potential workload cannot be ignored. Get a piece of him, but I am not convinced he is “good chalk” just yet.
With the injury to Watson’s man-crush, Fuller, this lends an opportunity for Stills to wake up as the primary vertical threat in this offense, for which he has an excellent skill set for. Stills is more of a stab here; Hopkins is the guy that I think Watson and Bill O’Brien need to get going. He has had some weeks of 10+ receptions and 100 yards, but he really hasn’t had that breakout week where he just takes a game over. Oakland seems like a good spot to have a slate-breaker, and Hopkins is due to explode.
DJ Chark ($6,000)
It’s been a couple of weeks since Chark did some real damage, but he had some tough matchups in those weeks. The Jets do not pose any sort of problem in that regard. Gardner Minshew should be able to find his favorite target this week and have Baby Chark light up the scoreboard.
John Brown ($5,900)
The Eagles secondary is dreadful. Not a lot of analysis in this one, but Brown should be able to get open and it wouldn’t take much to break a huge one in this matchup. Considering I do like Josh Allen this week, playing Brown with him goes hand-in-hand. Fire him up.
Our Green Bay receivers ended up falling by the wayside at 11:30 AM on Sunday when both Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison were made active, unfortunately. This week, our value relies on our trust in Tannehill and picking the receiver he manages to connect with the most. He seems to have a rapport with all three guys, but for me, you want that upside, so I would go Brown over Davis over Humphries, in that order.
Honorable Mentions – Sanu (Belichick stretching out his new acquisition against the lowly Browns), Calvin Ridley (no more Sanu targets), Allen Robinson, Rams Receivers, Larry Fitzgerald, Tyler Boyd, DaeSean Hamilton (value with Sanders targets missing)
George Kittle ($6,500)
The Panthers have some great linebackers, but Kittle is a physical freak, and he will always get his 6-8 targets. The Panthers are good enough to keep a positive game script for the 49ers passing game here, and Kittle should get his. He is the most expensive tight end on the board, but he is also the safest. For how bad tight-ends have been this season, he may not even need to score a touchdown to be worth playing.
Darren Waller ($5,900)
The Texans have not been great at stopping the passing game of any team and Waller has been tearing teams asunder, especially with the lack of talent at receiver for the Raiders. Waller had a touchdown called back last week, but still scored twice and I expect him to see some more red-zone looks and get in the box for us.
VALUE – T.J. Hockenson ($3,500)
Tight end is not known for how deep the position is, so finding value has been extremely tough this season. Hocksenson hasn’t had much success outside of that first week in Arizona. Since you know I think Stafford is going to end up airing it out, Hockenson fits into that game plan. The Giants defense is nothing to worry about, you just have to hope he sees the targets. Again, there just isn’t any solid guys in this price range for tight ends. He has the biggest ceiling, so I will tend to lean towards him if I need to pay down.
The Panthers are coming off of a bye, but they still don’t have Cam Newton available. Kyle Allen has been serviceable, but he hasn’t been much more than a game manager. The 49ers will have a hell of a time worrying about how to contain McCaffrey, but their pass rush should be able to deal with the Panthers’ offensive line and get to Allen. Throw a turnover in there and we have a good-looking defense score.
I can’t avoid playing this defense anymore, they produce week in and week out and get to further frustrate Baker Mayfield into making some poor throws. The Browns are not the type of team that wakes up to play a tough opponent. At least get SOME exposure here.
VALUE – Raiders ($1,500)
These prices are ridiculous. This is the third straight week there is a bargain-basement defense on the main slate. I have been targeting defenses against Watson just for the sack upside (he holds the ball WAY too long), and I will continue to do so this week at this price, even for the Raiders.
Honorable Mentions – Saints, Bears, Jaguars
In this section, I will list my favorite player at each position that is projected to be less than 5% owned. These will sometimes be dart-throws, and some will be more conviction plays and leverage spots. Don’t go slamming all these guys in one lineup and expecting success. They are low-owned for a reason, folks.
QB – Jameis Winston – We are banking that we get good Jameis and not interception Jameis. High risk, high reward.
RB – Josh Jacobs – The Texans have not been strong against the run and the Raiders can’t lean on Waller every play. Gruden wants to run the ball, and Jacobs should get 20+ touches.
WR – Chris Godwin – If you believe in Winston not being terrible this week, Godwin is his number one guy and he can beat Titans corners without too much trouble.
TE – Jared Cook – Engram failed last week in the “Arizona bad against tight ends” narrative last week, but our choices at below 5% owned are pretty slim for the position. I don’t think the quarterback situation changes anything for him this week.
DST – Raiders – The Texans are going to put up points, we just need them to sack Watson a few times and maybe force a turnover from the pressure and the savings should get us going.
TWO MINUTE WARNING
If you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter. I will answer any questions you have!
Let’s make that money this week!
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