Week Seven NFL Picks: Spreads, Props and More

Mike Fanelli & Givanni Damico | October 19th, 2019

The entire NFL world was silent as reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes suffered a dislocated knee cap Thursday night against the Denver Broncos. Thankfully, the MRI results yesterday reportedly show no further damage and Mahomes should return later this season. With Mahomes out of the game, everyone who bet the Broncos +3 was feeling great about their odds to cash their ticket. However, the Broncos’ offense fell apart after the opening drive and the Chiefs went on to easily win 30-6.

To recap last week, neither guy had a great week. Mike went 6-7 ATS and just 1-2 on his favorite bets while Gio went 7-6 ATS and 2-1 on his favorite bets after Kyler Murray redeemed himself from his week five performance, throwing for three touchdowns in a win over the Atlanta Falcons, easily hitting the over. In total, Mike went 7-9 (43.8% hit rate) while Gio was 9-7 (56.3% hit rate) on our 16 bets from last week. However, either of us are professional betters nor know everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how we do in week seven.

Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions.

Mike

Game

Gio

Raiders +4.5

Raiders +4.5 at Packers

Packers -4.5

Bills -17

Dolphins +17 at Bills

Bills -17

Falcons +3

Rams -3 at Falcons

Rams -3

Vikings -1.5

Vikings -1.5 at Lions

Lions +1.5

Texans +1

Texans +1 at Colts

Texans +1

Giants -3

Cardinals +3 at Giants

Giants -3

49ers -9.5

49ers -9.5 at Redskins

49ers -9.5

Jaguars -4

Jaguars -4 at Bengals

Jaguars -4

Chargers +2.5

Chargers +2.5 at Titans

Chargers +2.5

Bears -3

Saints +3 at Bears

Saints +3

Ravens +3

Ravens +3 at Seahawks

Seahawks -3

Cowboys -2.5

Eagles +2.5 at Cowboys

Cowboys -2.5

Patriots -10

Patriots -10 at Jets

Patriots -10

Favorite Spread Bet

Mike – 49ers -9.5 at Redskins

It literally took for Kenyan Drake to drop an easy pass for the Redskins to defeat the dumpster fire known as the Miami Dolphins last week. Is there any chance on earth that the 49ers don’t win by double digits? At -10 I was a little nervous but with it dropping to -9.5, I love this spread. The Redskins are losing their games by an average of 15.6 points per game this season and have lost four straight by 10 or more. Despite the 49ers not having both starting tackles for this game, they should have no problem defeating the Redskins by double digits.

Gio – Patriots -10 at Jets

So, just because Sam Darnold had a good week against the Cowboys last week, this team has a chance against the reigning Super Bowl Champions? No way! Their defense has been other-worldly and they will expose Darnold and the Jets’ offense for who they really are. The Jets’ defense may be able to hold their own against the Patriots, but there’s no chance the Patriots don’t cover.

Favorite Over/Under Bet

Mike – Titans team under 9.5 in the first half

Whether it is Marcus Mariota or Ryan Tannehill, this Titans’ offense is awful. They are averaging 7.2 points per game in the first half this season. The Titans have scored zero points in 50% of their games this season, including in each of the last two weeks. Furthermore, the Titans didn’t put up a single point last week against a Broncos defense that just got beat by Matt Moore Thursday night. Furthermore, the fact that the Titans are 2.5 point favorites is mind-blogging to me. The Chargers should be favored and if the Titans score double digits in the entire game, I will be shocked. Easily first half under here.

Gio – Rams at Falcons over 54.5

This might be a risky bet since the over/under number is already pretty high, but there will be little to no defense played by either side in this game. I’m hoping for a remake of last year’s Chiefs and Rams game, but I don’t expect quite the same level of explosiveness. Both of these teams have plenty of offensive weapons, but neither defense has played anywhere near a consistent level this year. For the umpteenth time, this game will be a shootout.

Favorite Prop Bet

Mike – T.Y. Hilton over 65.5 receiving yards

No one has had as much success against the Texans as Hilton has. Over his last five games against the Texans, Hilton is averaging 123.6 receiving yards per game. Before you say, “Well he doesn’t have Andrew Luck anymore”, Hilton had his best game of the 2017 season (the year Jacoby Brissett was the starter) against the Texans with 175 yards and two touchdowns. Last week the Texans gave up 80 yards to Tyreek Hill despite him playing just 50% of the snaps. Even with a -125 price, this is an excellent bet and the over could easily hit before halftime.

Gio – Cooper Kupp over 6.5 receptions

Even after a poor performance last week, Kupp is still quite obviously the go-to guy on this offense. Nobody has played as consistently as he has and he should create fits for this weak Falcons’ defense. I’d be shocked if Jared Goff doesn’t get him the ball at least seven times on Sunday. Kupp is set up for one of the biggest games of his career, so let’s hope he pulls through.

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