The Walsh Way – Week 7 NFL DFS GPP Plays

Kevin Walsh | October 19th, 2019 

All my plays are based on DraftKings pricing. Its also important to note that when I list a player as a fade, I do not mean I will have 0% of them, but I will be way under the field as far as exposure goes, and likely will not play them on single entry lineups.

TOURNAMENT STACKS

This is a strange week for game stacking, as there are some really low totals and a lot of injuries to star players, making it more difficult to really get a full stack on most games. These are my favorites from the slim pickings:

Los Angeles Rams at Atlanta Falcons – Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, Matt Ryan, Devonta Freeman, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Mohamed Sanu, Austin Hooper

This game looks to be our firestorm of the week. As far as Atlanta goes, they will have to contend with the Rams trading for Jalen Ramsey, who will likely play man coverage on one side of the field, especially since he doesn’t need to learn the playbook at all to play man. Some outlets are saying he is going to shadow Julio, and I think Ramsey will be stuck on one side of the field, so it will ultimately be up to Atlanta who Ramsey is covering. I don’t know that it will really cut into Julio’s ownership, but this is something to monitor if we get clarification.

Outside of Ramsey, the Rams defense is beaten up badly in the secondary. Some mix of Julio, Ridley, Hooper, and maybe even Sanu could get the job done, we just have the issue of picking the right combination. After last week, Freeman is catching a lot of balls, too, so pick the spots you like best.

The Rams are coming off a real dud from last week but are poised to bounce back in a big way. The Falcons defense is DREADFUL. Gurley is coming back this week but that should not hinder this passing offense. As usual, I like their receivers in this order: Kupp, Woods, Cooks. Again, if you are bringing it back with a Falcons player, you are spinning the wheel and hoping a bit. I wish I had a stronger conviction for this, but Ramsey really makes it messy.

Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens – Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, Mark Andrews

While I do like the potential for scoring this game, it is a distant second to the Rams-Falcons game. Wilson is in MVP form and is facing a Ravens defense that is not playing up to old reputation at all. Their one bright spot is Marlon Humphrey, who will be smothering Tyler Lockett. This game should lend itself to a Metcalf game, but be aware that Jaron Brown and David Moore exist and have been popping up the last couple of weeks. I could even get to Brown this week maybe as the second guy in a stack, if necessary. If you think Seattle pounds the ball, Baltimore isn’t great against the run either and Carson can do some damage.

Lamar doesn’t have his favorite deep-threat in Marquise Brown, but he still has Mark Andrews, and he still has his legs. Seattle’s defense isn’t much to fear, so Jackson should still get his if they plan on staying competitive. You could run Lamar naked, or with Andrews, or take some deep fliers on Miles Boykin or somebody similar that is a warm body for the Ravens.

Honorable Mentions: ARI/NYG, HOU/IND

POSITION BY POSITION

I will refrain from continuing to mention the same players across sections, so these will be more about other players I am interested in outside of big game stacks. I will try to pick a player or two in each pricing tier (High, Middle, Low).

Quarterback

Daniel Jones ($6,100) 

I have already talked about my top four quarterbacks on this slate, but Danny Dimes is not far behind. Jones gets his best weapon back in Saquon Barkley, but he is plenty involved in the passing game, and he will also set up the passing game when they load the box to stop him. The Cardinals do get Patrick Peterson back this week, but he tends to stick to one side and will likely see Darius Slayton for the bulk of the game.

Kyler Murray ($6,700)

On the other side of this game, it isn’t as if the Giants defense has been particularly stifling. We do have to monitor the availability of Christian Kirk, but Murray has enough weapons to score 30 points here, especially since he has been taking off and running for it lately.

VALUE – Ryan Tannehill ($4,800)

If you really feel the need to go dumpster diving, Tannehill is taking over the reins from Marcus Mariota and the Chargers defense is not spectacular. I don’t like paying down at quarterback this year, but if you are going to go down, go ALL THE WAY DOWN.

Honorable Mentions – Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen

Running Back

Saquon Barkley ($8,900)

Guess who’s baaaacckkkk? The best back in the league comes back into the fold just as the Giants are starting to click on offense. Barkley is involved in every facet of the offense, and there is just no way you can fade this guy against what might be the worst defense in the league (bottom five defense at least). It shouldn’t take much convincing to click on Barkley this Sunday.

Leonard Fournette ($7,000)

I imagine this back will be the most owned on Sunday. His matchup is excellent, his talent is elite, his offensive line is good (and much better than the Bengals line), and his price is lower than the other studs with more question marks. His ridiculous usage lately makes it pretty hard for him to bust, barring injury, so fire up Fournette this week while he is healthy.

Frank Gore ($5,200)

He isn’t a sexy play but running old man into the sad Dolphins trash cans will likely yield 80-100 yards on the ground, you just hope he gets in the box before the game gets out of reach and T.J. Yeldon starts pounding the clock.

VALUE – Josh Jacobs ($5,000)

Envision a game plan that involves the Raiders taking it to Green Bay and coming out on top. Does that involve Derek Carr dropping dimes on nameless receivers (and Darren Waller) all game? No, the Raiders are going to run the ball, and Gruden loves to do just that. While there is plenty to criticize about Gruden, he will take what the defense gives him, and Jacobs should be the focal point this week, especially with Tyrell Williams still on the shelf.

Honorable Mentions – Mark Ingram, Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Devonta Freeman, Chris Carson, Marlon Mack, Carlos Hyde, Devin Singletary, Chase Edmonds (if David Johnson is ruled out)

Wide Receiver

I spoke about many of the expensive receivers in-game stacks, so here are a few other guys to sprinkle into your stacks.

T.Y. Hilton ($5,900) 

Hilton has had great success in the past against this divisional rival, and he has had the bye week to get back to 100%. His price is stupid, and you have to play him in this spot, regardless that he will likely be the most owned receiver.

Tyler Boyd ($5,600)

When Boyd was thousands more than Auden Tate, it made some sense to play Tate, but now just $1,100 separate them, and Boyd’s upside is just above and beyond anything Tate has done so far. Ramsey is out of Jacksonville, and they have struggled with his absence in the last couple of weeks. This is a great bounce-back spot for Boyd.

John Brown ($5,500)

If I had to pick any one player from the Bills this week, it would be John Brown. Even if the Bills blow out these sad Dolphins, Brown will likely get to eat prior to the game getting out of hand. Buffalo also isn’t built to blow teams out on offense in any sort of quick manner, so I think Brown will get his usual seven catches, and hopefully makes two of them in the endzone.

VALUE – Green Bay Receivers – Allen Lazard ($3,000), Darrius Shepherd ($3,600), and Jake Kumerow ($3,500)

This comes with the caveat that we have to guess what Green Bay guys are going to get there for us. I would lean Lazard-Kumerow-Shepard, in that order. I probably won’t know what to do with that until late Sunday morning. Lazard can pay his price off on one play, where Kumerow is more of a PPR type play.

Honorable Mentions – Will Fuller, DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Golden Tate, Mike Williams

Tight End

Evan Engram ($6,500) 

Last week, I spoke about Austin Hooper and the “play tight ends against Arizona” narrative. Hooper didn’t blow up, but he was good, and Engram is a hell of a lot more dynamic than Hooper. While Peterson is back, that should just force their hand into throwing across the middle more, and that shapes up great for an Engram monster.

Darren Waller ($4,700) 

If Oakland has to throw the ball, this is the only reliable guy they have left. How many times can you really throw the ball to Hunter Renfrow? Waller still hasn’t found the endzone yet, and this is a good a week as any to get there.

VALUE – Hunter Henry ($4,000)

This ought to be pretty highly owned, but Henry has been peppered with targets already in his return to action, and with Keenan Allen stuck in a tough matchup, Henry should be Rivers’ safety valve across the middle if he isn’t dumping it off to Austin Ekeler. He is a monster in the red zone also, and the Titans are a tough team, so grinding across the middle is more likely that deep strikes to Mike Williams (even though Malcolm Butler is a walking trash can).

Honorable Mentions – Mark Andrews, Gerald Everett

Defense/Special Teams

I think there are two ways to play this spot this week – either pay all the way up or pay all the way down. With that in mind…

49ers ($4,100) 

The Redskins offensive line is pretty bad, and the Niners have been running over good offensive lines, so I can imagine many sacks, maybe a fumble, and there’s always a shot at a touchdown.

Bills ($4,300) 

Another pay-up spot, the Bills get to pad their statistics against the Dolphins. Ryan Fitzpatrick takes over the reins and he tends to meltdown when the game isn’t going his way. I wouldn’t be surprised if the most expensive defense ends up being the top-scoring defense this week.

VALUE – Redskins ($1,700) 

If you are dumpster-diving on defense (like we were last week with the Jets), I would rather go here than the Dolphins. The 49ers are on the road, and their offense isn’t exactly elite especially given their injuries on the offensive line.

Honorable Mentions – Saints, Bears, Dolphins

Ownership Considerations

In this section, I will list my favorite player at each position that is projected to be less than 5% owned. These will sometimes be dart-throws, and some will be more conviction plays and leverage spots. Don’t go slamming all these guys in one lineup and expecting success. They are low-owned for a reason, folks.

QB – Aaron Rodgers Way too under-owned, even if his weapons are all total unknowns.

RB – Derrick Henry It appears that I am going to die on this hill again this week. Last week, we got a little unlucky that the Denver defense decided to shape up. This Chargers defense is not of the same caliber, and if they have any sense at all, they will run Henry down their throats with Tannehill at the helm.

WR – Will Fuller Basically dropped four touchdowns last week, just needs to catch one to be valuable at his price, and obviously has slate-breaking potential.

TE – Jimmy Graham Just looking for some touchdown equity, and Rodgers is still looking for him.

DST – Vikings

TWO MINUTE WARNING

If you have any questions, hit me up on Twitter. I will answer any you have!

Let’s make that money this week!

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