Kevin Walsh | October 10th, 2019
Another week in the books, and another page of value chalk that failed spectacularly. As with most weeks, much of the popular value ends up being from one team. Last week, it was Bengals pass-catchers, this week it looks to be the Dolphins offense. We will try to navigate through the landmines the best we can.
With that said, let’s get to the cheap looks for this week.
Kirk Cousins ($5,200 DK $7,000 FD)
The pricing for quarterbacks is evening out to the point where value is not obvious or solid. Enter Cousins, who had a decent day passing last week, could continue to run the narrative of “keeping his receivers happy,” as last week went. They are at home against an Eagles defense that struggles in coverage, so if you can imagine a game script where they don’t just pound Dalvin Cook 35 times, then Cousins could be a reasonable value this week.
Josh Rosen ($4,500 DK $6,400 FD)
The first of many Dolphins value plays this week as Miami is at home against the also-hapless Redskins. I happen to think that Miami has way more talent than Washington does at this point, and that is after Miami shipped out their best players already. If Rosen can find his receivers, he could end up having a big day at a bargain price.
Don’t Forget About: Sam Darnold
Kenyan Drake ($4,400 DK $5,600 FD)
My least favorite of Dolphins value plays, Drake has been having a hard time finding running room. His saving grace is that he can be a real home-run hitter, so one long play could have him hit value on a slate that doesn’t have much for running backs.
Carlos Hyde ($4,400 DK $6,000 FD) & Duke Johnson ($4,100 DK $5,300 FD)
The way to beat the Chiefs is to run the ball, and everyone is running the ball effectively on them. I would typically lean Hyde for that role, but Johnson has been stealing some snaps and sneaking into plays where he may not normally be. I still lean Hyde, but both of these guys could end up being viable this week.
Don’t Forget About: Malcolm Brown (if Todd Gurley is out)
Preston Williams ($4,100 DK $5,600 FD)
Williams was a pre-season darling but hasn’t really had the space to explode in the regular season yet. This looks to be his best spot of the season, and it’s obvious enough that he is projected to be around 20% owned. I think this play is safer than Auden Tate was last week.
Robby Anderson ($4,000 DK $5,300 FD)
After a brutal opening schedule of cornerback matchups, it doesn’t get a ton easier this week against the Cowboys, but it is easier than it has been. The real catalyst here is that Darnold is back this week, and he loves targeting Anderson. Get in now before everyone remembers this fact.
Courtland Sutton ($5,000 DK $5,900 FD)
Quietly, Malcolm Butler has been dreadful in coverage this season. I assume Sutton will see Butler in the bulk of his snaps, as Emmanuel Sanders is often in the slot. Sutton is showing his talent so far this season, even if his quarterback is mediocre at best. He isn’t that cheap, which may actually bring his ownership down a bit. I like this spot for Sutton.
Don’t Forget About: DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills (if available for Sunday), Keke Coutee (if Stills is out)
I will just note that tight ends on FanDuel do not get priced down very far, so the value aspect is diminished there.
Jared Cook ($3,400 DK $5,600 FD)
As usual, there is little to no value at tight end, but Cook has been seeing some targets from Teddy Bridgewater and is a good a dart throw as any at this price on DraftKings. I would just pay the extra money on FanDuel to get a high-volume tight end.
Gerald Everett ($3,600 DK $6,000 FD)
I never thought I would be touting Everett as a good play on any week, yet here I am. I am unsure of Everett’s actual talent, but Jared Goff seems to be finding him every week, and you can’t ignore the volume at this price, especially if Brandin Cooks is out.
Don’t Forget About: Jordan Akins, Hayden Hurst (if Mark Andrews is out)
Miami Dolphins ($2,700 DK $3,700 FD)
The Dolphins nab one more spot in the value column. For how random defense can be, is it really that hard to believe that (whatever quarterback Washington starts this week) throws a pick-six or gets strip-sacked for a touchdown?
New York Jets ($1,500 DK $3,100 FD)
The Cowboys have destroyed bad teams but have struggled against good teams. I would lean towards the Jets being a bad team as a whole, but their defense is actually solid. The real trick to this play is that the Jets are actually priced below $2,000 on DraftKings, which is pretty much unheard of. If you are jamming multiple high-priced running backs into your lineups, the Jets may be a spot you look and try to get lucky.
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