NFL

Week Four NFL Picks: Spreads, Props and More

Mike Fanelli & Givanni Damico | September 28th, 2019 

Week four of the NFL season is off to a good start as the Thursday night game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers was a close and entertaining contest. If half of the games on Sunday are as good as Thursday night’s, NFL and gambling fans are in for a great day of football.

To recap last week, Mike struggled, going 6-9 ATS and 0-2-1 on his favorite bets. Meanwhile, Gio was 8-7 ATS was a flawless 3-0 on his favorite bets. In total, Mike went 6-11-1 (36.1% hit rate) last week while Gio was 11-7 (61.1% hit rate) on our 18 bets from last week. However, neither of us are professional gamblers nor know everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how we do in week four.

Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions.

Mike

Game

Gio

Ravens -7

Browns +7 at Ravens

Ravens -7

Panthers +4

Panthers +4 at Texans

Texans -4

Chiefs -6.5

Chiefs -6.5 at Lions

Chiefs -6.5

Bills +7

Patriots -7 at Bills

Bills +7

Colts -7

Raiders +7 at Colts

Colts -7

Chargers -15

Chargers -15 at Dolphins

Chargers -15

Falcons -3.5

Titans +3.5 at Falcons

Falcons -3.5

Redskins +3

Redskins +3 at Giants

Giants -3

Rams -9.5

Buccaneers +9.5 at Rams

Rams -9.5

Cardinals +5.5

Seahawks -5.5 at Cardinals

Seahawks -5.5

Vikings +2

Vikings +2 at Bears

Vikings +2

Jaguars +3

Jaguars +3 at Broncos

Jaguars +3

Saints +2.5

Cowboys -2.5 at Saints

Cowboys -2.5

Bengals +3.5

Bengals +3.5 at Steelers

Steelers -3.5

Favorite Spread Bet

Mike – Vikings +2 at Bears

This line makes no sense to me. The Vikings aren’t an elite team but clearly have been better than the Bears over the first three weeks of the season. Aside from their lone loss in week two to the previously undefeated Packers, the Vikings won their other two games by a combined margin of 36 points. Meanwhile, the Bears scored a combined 19 points in their first two games before taking advantage of a pathetic Redskins squad last week. Even if this line was Vikings -2, I would still take it. Led by Dalvin Cook and the running game, the Vikings easily win this game by three or more. Take the Vikings on the money line at +105 or +110, they won’t need the points.

Gio – Chargers -15 at Dolphins

I hate to be that guy who takes the easy route and bets against the Dolphins, but this line is ridiculous. The Dolphins have been blown out every week so far and can’t get anything going on offense. The Chargers are a talented team on both sides of the ball and should easily be able to win this game by at least two touchdowns and a field goal. Miami could very well go 0-16 this season.

Favorite Over/Under Bet

Mike – Seahawks at Cardinals over 46

Over the first three weeks of the NFL season, the Seahawks are averaging 25.3 points per game while the Cardinals are averaging 21.3 per game. Combined that gets you to the over/under of 46 points. While you may think that is irrelevant, both teams rank in the bottom 10 of points given up per game. The Seahawks give up an average of 26.3 points per game while the Cardinals give up 29.3 per game. The bottom line here is simple. Neither team’s defense is very good and both offenses will need to put up points. Even if Russell Wilson and the Seahawks pull ahead early, it will only mean garbage time points for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. The total for this game could easily end up in the high 50s.

Gio – Patriots at Bills under 44

Both of these teams have had elite defenses this year. Neither team has played anyone special but I see a lot of three-and-outs in these teams’ futures. Tom Brady has struggled against Buffalo the last two times he’s faced them and Josh Allen feels the pressure easily against tough defenses. This game will come down to who will put more pressure on the opposing quarterback. Buffalo wins it 24-17.

Favorite Prop Bet

Mike – Austin Ekeler over 67.5 rushing yards

Justin Jackson, Hunter Henry, and Mike Williams have all been ruled out because of injuries for the Chargers against the Dolphins. Melvin Gordon may or may not play in this game and even if he does head coach Anthony Lynn said he would get limited snaps if any. Ekeler would easily go over his 67.5 rushing yards before all the injuries but now that the Chargers offense is all but limited to him and Keenan Allen, you can double his rushing total and I would still take the over. The Dolphins defense is so awful that they gave up 228 rushing yards to Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard last week. You should be able to cash the over by the middle of the second quarter if not sooner.

Gio – Philip Rivers over 1.5 passing touchdowns

Yes, I’m picking on the Dolphins again. This is a no-doubter for me unless Rivers gets hurt or gets pulled from the game because of how much of a blowout it is. The Chargers are without some key components of their team, but Allen and Ekeler are still active and a huge threat to the Miami defense.

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