NFL

Week Three NFL Picks: Spreads, Props and More

Mike Fanelli & Givanni Damico | September 21st, 2019 

Yesterday the New England Patriots released Antonio Brown and the spread dropped half a point; no surprise there as the New York Jets are starting their third string quarterback. However, it’s week three and another chance to make some cash. To recap last week, Mike was 7-8 ATS and was a flawless 3-0 on his favorite bets. Meanwhile, Gio was 9-6 ATS but just 1-2 on his favorite bets. In total, we both went 10-8 on our 18 bets from last week (55.5% hit rate). However, neither of us are professional gamblers nor know everything there is to sports betting, but it’s always fun to have some money on the line when watching the games so let’s see how we do in week three.

Please bet responsibly and do not bet your mortgage or 401K on any of our suggestions.

Mike

Game

Gio

Broncos +7.5

Broncos +7.5 at Packers

Packers -7.5

Falcons +1.5

Falcons +1.5 at Colts

Falcons +1.5

Ravens +5.5

Ravens +5.5 at Chiefs

Ravens +5.5

Bills -6

Bengals +6 at Bills

Bills -6

Patriots -21.5

Jets +21.5 at Patriots

Patriots -21.5

Lions +5.5

Lions +5.5 at Eagles

Eagles -5.5

Raiders +9

Raiders +9 at Vikings

Vikings -9

Cowboys -22.5

Dolphins +22.5 at Cowboys

Dolphins +22.5

Giants +6

Giants +6 at Buccaneers

Giants +6

Cardinals -2

Panthers +2 at Cardinals

Panthers +2

Steelers +6.5

Steelers +6.5 at 49ers

Steelers +6.5

Texans +3

Texans +3 at Chargers

Texans +3

Seahawks -4.5

Saints +4.5 at Seahawks

Seahawks -4.5

Rams -3

Rams -3 at Browns

Rams -3

Redskins +4

Bears -4 at Redskins

Bears -4

Favorite Spread Bet

Mike – Raiders +9 at Vikings

It’s amazing what the Chiefs can do to a spread. Last week the Raiders were up 10-0 at the end of the first quarter on the Chiefs, then Patrick Mahomes went nuts in the second quarter, scoring 28 points. The game had zero total points scored in the second half, which was odd. However, no one expected that game to be competitive and if you backed the Raiders +7 last week I have no idea what you were thinking. Anyways, the Vikings’ passing game has been awful so far this season. Kirk Cousins is averaging just 164 yards per game and has as many interceptions as touchdowns. The Raiders are long shots to win, but can they stay within a touchdown? Hell yes they can. Nine points is just way too many.

Gio – Rams -3 at Browns

Are we going to sit here and act like the Browns have played impressive football through the first two weeks? Absolutely not. The Rams have started off pretty hot against the Panthers and the Saints, and I whole-heartedly trust Jared Goff to put some points up against the Cleveland defense. The Rams only need to win by more than a field goal to cover the spread which they have done against better teams so far. 

Favorite Over/Under Bet

Mike – Broncos at Packers under 43

For the first time in forever, the Packers actually have a defense. Through the first two games of the season, the Packers have held their opponents to 19 total points while forcing five turnovers and getting six sacks. Meanwhile, the Broncos have scored just 30 points this season. Considering they could barely score 16 against the Raiders in week one, they aren’t likely to score more than 17 this week at best. The Packers offense hasn’t been much better, scoring 31 points this season, but they have faced two tough defenses. Even if the Packers break out and score 24 points and the Broncos catch a break or two, you can still cash on the under with a final score 24-17.

Gio – Panthers at Cardinals over 44.5

Neither of these teams have extremely stout defenses, but both teams have an electrifying player on offense. No matter who’s at quarterback for the Panthers, Christian McCaffrey finds a way to make big plays on offense (excluding last week). Everybody is favoring the Cardinals in this game, but who’s to say that Kyle Allen doesn’t play better? While it may be too early to call Kyler Murray an electrifying playmaker, he’s certainly been passing the ball pretty good in the air raid system so far. I’d be quite surprised if this game ended up being under the point spread.

Favorite Prop Bet

Mike – Mark Andrews over 5.5 catches

Andrews has caught 16 of 17 targets so far this season, catching eight balls in each game. The Chiefs have given up 17 catches for 145 yards to the Jaguars and Raiders tight ends this season. Andrews is a better tight end than anyone on either of those teams and plays on a very explosive offense. Other than Marquise Brown, Andrews is Lamar Jackson‘s go to guy, especially in the red zone. Hell, I’ll double down, take the over on Andrew’s catches (5.5), yards (68.5), and chance to score a touchdown.

Gio – DeMarcus Robinson over 2.5 catches

Robinson had a fantastic showing last week in the absence of Tyreek Hill. The Ravens’ defense will have a lot to worry about on the field with him, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and Travis Kelce. I guarantee Patrick Mahomes spreads the ball around and that Robinson is en route to another solid performance.

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