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The Walsh Way – Week 3 DFS Values

Kevin Walsh | September 20th, 2019 

Well, week two was a bit of a disaster. The big Raiders trap was set, and we all fell for it. Granted Tyrell Williams did score and Darren Waller didn’t kill you, when you have 40-50% of them when you enter 150 lineups, it’s going to cause some issues.

As usual, we are learning from the past and moving forward. It was a very strange week for any season, so don’t get too far down about the results. Let’s take a sneak peek at some value for this upcoming week.

Quarterback

All three of these quarterbacks listed are coming in due to injury or benching, so note that there is a great deal of risk associated with all of them.

Mason Rudolph ($4,800 DK, $6,600 FD)

Ben Roethlisberger has had his body fail him one more time so in comes Rudolph. In relief, he didn’t look so bad and kept the Steelers in a game that they barely showed life in with Big Ben at the helm. Rudolph also has one of his receivers from college in James Washington, who should see some action with Donte Moncrief dropping everything but his bad habits. The Steelers seem to trust Rudolph, so maybe we should too.

Daniel Jones ($5,000 DK, $6,000 FD)

Danny Dimes has the green light this week with Eli Manning taking a seat on the pine. Jones had some promise in the preseason and could breathe a little bit of life into this sad Giants unit. The other good news is that they are playing against Tampa Bay, which should be a good matchup for anyone to exploit – or so we will find out.

Kyle Allen ($4,000 DK, $6,000 FD)

This is obviously contingent on Cam Newton not playing this week, but he clearly hasn’t been right all season. If Cam is in, you can’t play him. If he is out, Allen is a bare minimum quarterback on both sites playing against a sad Cardinals defense with weapons at every position. It’s not surprising that he could end up being popular at that price. Just know that we have no idea what this kid is going to do, and this is a total wild card.

Don’t Forget About: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Jameis Winston (you know, real quarterbacks)

Running Back

Marlon Mack ($5,800 DK, $7,000 FD)

Possibly the highest-priced player in my value sections, Mack is going against the Falcons defense that has just been a sieve to opposing running backs. While they give much of their production to pass-catching backs, Mack can still gash them up the middle while still having some three or four catch upside. Because he is not traditionally a pass-catcher, this should keep his ownership depressed. This might be my big stand for the week.

Miles Sanders ($3,900 DK, $5,400 FD)

Philadelphia has deployed an oft-frustrating running back by committee approach, but here is my theory. Sanders is a guy they want to get that game experience so down the road, they can really lean on him to get their game going. Considering they are 6.5 point favorites at home, it stands to reason that they might be in chew-clock mode late in the game, and Sanders is the best back they have to get the job done, especially if they are trying to keep Jordan Howard fresh for the season stretch. Sanders is risky but has some upside for his expected 12-15 touches.

Frank Gore ($4,400 DK, $5,700 FD)

This play is not contingent on the status of Devin Singletary, however, if he were to remain out, this value shoots up through the roof. Gore is the guy that refuses to go into that good night, and he gets to chew up some yards against a subpar Bengals defense. He is a risky play with limited upside if Singletary plays, but I don’t see T.J. Yeldon taking too many of his touches if Singletary can’t go.

Don’t Forget About: Phillip Lindsay, Raheem Mostert

Wide Receiver

Larry Fitzgerald ($5,100 DK, $5,900 FD) & Christian Kirk ($5,000 DK, $5,900 FD)

I got onto these two late last week, and my reasoning held true – the Ravens would be ahead and Kyler would need to throw to be competitive. This week is a slightly different story, where the Cardinals will be playing against a potentially Cam-less Panthers team who have been relatively stout on defense. They are tougher on the run, and those corners can be beaten, especially considering how many four-wide sets the Cardinals play. Kyler will continue to throw, and these are his two favorite targets.

Nelson Agholor ($3,600 DK, $4,800 FD)

DeSean Jackson looks like his groin injury is going to hold him out this week. If Alshon Jeffery also can’t go, it has been shown that Wentz trusts Agholor (despite his occasional drop). It could also be contested that if Jeffery is in, Darius Slay will shadow him and make Agholor the open man. Tough to figure out without complete information, but keep him in the back of your mind when that injury news comes out later in the week.

Emmanuel Sanders ($4,800 DK, $5,700 FD)

It is genuinely hard to find somebody’s number one receiver at this price tag. Not only does Sanders look unhindered by his Achilles injury, but Joe Flacco seems to be looking for him, especially with the game on the line. That is good news for Sanders, and he should continue to get peppered with targets, especially if Green Bay gets out to an early lead.

Don’t Forget About: JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Mecole Hardman, James Washington

Tight End

I will just note that tight ends on FanDuel do not get priced down very far, so the value aspect is diminished over there.

Jared Cook ($3,800 DK, $5,800 FD)

Cook loses his man in Drew Brees for a few weeks, but when Teddy Bridgewater played in relief, he was looking for Cook. There isn’t a ton of cheap options at the position every week, so know that this has a great deal of risk, especially if they really run some two-quarterback rotational situation with Bridgewater and Taysom Hill like Sean Payton is inferring. His snap share and targets are the safest of these three, but even that isn’t saying much.

O.J. Howard ($3,800 DK, $5,800 FD)

A victim of recency bias, Howard had a whopping zero targets last week. While Bruce Arians has mentioned that “the balls will come,” we can also consider Howard here as a leverage spot and a buy-low candidate this week. Winston needs to right the ship and turn things around, and Howard could easily be a big reason why.

T.J. Hockenson ($3,500 DK, $5,500 FD)

What a roller-coaster the first two weeks of this kid’s career has been for the DFS community. People were hard-locking him into their lineups after having the most prolific rookie tight end game of NFL history only to have him fall flat in a good matchup. This is a spot we like to hit in DFS when everyone remembers last week’s donut and you get a low-owned guy in a good spot with a cheap price. He is probably my favorite of these three here if I am going to pay down (though I usually pay up).

Defense

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($2,900 DK, $4,300 FD)

If you don’t believe in Danny Dimes of the preseason and believe more in the Danny Dimes of near butt-fumble fame from week one, then this is the defense for you. Tampa isn’t the most talented bunch, but they are opportunistic. I’m sure the Giants will put up some points, but they also may give some points going back the other way.

Minnesota Vikings ($3,300 DK, $4,200 FD)

The Vikings had to play the Packers on the road, lost pretty handily, but were still worth six points. This week they get Oakland at home, and I don’t really hear anybody talking about playing them. Derek Carr can be mistake-prone, and this may get a bit out of hand quickly for how well the Vikings have gotten their run game going. Carr will take sacks too, so Minnesota seems pretty safe at this price if you want to differentiate from teams playing against the Jets or Dolphins.

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