MLB MLB DFS

MLB DFS: Pitching Options, Top Hitters, and Values for 9/13/19

Joey Ricotta | September 13th, 2019 

Welcome in and happy Friday everyone. By the time lineups lock most of you will be free from work, getting ready to enjoy a nice weekend. Let’s start that weekend off right by adding to our DFS bankroll. Here are some Pitching Options, Top Hitters, and a Value Play to look at tonight.

Pitching Options

High Tier

Gerrit Cole ($12,200 on DK and $12,000 on FD)

Gerrit Cole is a machine. He’s averaging 28.5 DK points per game on the season and 38.08 DK points over his last five starts. During the last five-game stretch, he’s struck out 14 batters or more three times, and no fewer than 10 batters in each of the five. The Kansas City Royals don’t strikeout a ton, but they aren’t a match-up to shy away from. The Royals have hit the fourth-fewest home runs in the league against right-handed pitchers with 114, and they strikeout at a 22% clip.

Mid Range

Sandy Alcantara ($8,100 on DK and $7,400 on FD)

After spinning an absolute gem his last time out against the Kansas City Royals, Alcantara’s price barely rose at all. Alcantara’s last start? He threw a complete-game four-hit shutout against the Royals, where he struck out eight and walked only two. Alcantara has gone at least 7 innings in five of his last six starts. While he probably showed his ceiling in the last start, this is a spot where he should have continued success facing off against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park.

Dumpster Dive

Adrian Houser ($5,700 and $6,400 on FD)

The St. Louis Cardinals’ offensive upside seems to be somewhat limited this season, and they are freshly removed from a series in Colorado, where the bats looked less than stellar in the most ideal of hitting conditions. Houser has faced this team three different times this season and had mixed results. However, he did post his second-best game from a Draftkings perspective against them, putting up 21.20 points on August 21st. I’m banking on the decent results of the last two times and the fact that St. Louis struggled with far worse pitchers IN COLORADO.

Top Hitters

3B Nolan Arenado ($5,400 on DK and $4,600 on FD)

Nolan Arenado at home against a lefty. Nolan Arenado at home against a lefty. This will be embedded in my head for eternity. On the year, Arenado has an identical .313 batting average against both righties and lefties. But, against lefties at home, he’s hitting .391, while hitting only .244 against them on the road. On the other side, Joey Lucchesi isn’t always a pitcher to pick on, but his home/road splits vs right-handed hitters are similar to Arenado’s numbers, with a .153/.274 (home/road) average against.

3B/SS Manny Machado ($4,800 on DK and $4,100 on FD)

Machado loves hitting at Coors Field. This season, he’s 15-31 (.484) with 3 HRs, 8 RBIs, 6 XBHs, and 11 Rs. Jeff Hoffman‘s horrid .449 wOBA and 3.80 HR/9 rate against righties this season won’t do him any favors. Machado has also already hit a bomb off of him. Lock him in and watch him rip.

Value Play

C Austin Hedges ($3,100 on DK and $2,700 on FD)

Hedges is a solid play for his price. He hits plenty of balls in the air with a 46.9% FB%, according to Fangraphs. That number ties him for the 17th highest rate of Fly Balls hit in the majors. Hitting in a ballpark like Coors Field could be especially beneficial for the guy that hits a lot of fly balls. Your average fly ball could very well leave the yard. Hoffman’s sitting with a 7.06 ERA and 2.65 HR/9 rate on the season.

Stacks

Seattle Mariners vs Dylan Covey

Covey has gotten slaughtered all year with a 7.69 ERA and 1.96 HR/9 rate, while only striking out 14.9% of batters. Because of his cheap price tag, he might have some ownership tonight. I think that’s a mistake and I’m more than willing to stack against him.

Oakland Athletics vs Brock Burke

Oakland recently hung three touchdowns on the board in one game. No, I’m not talking about the Oakland Raiders. The Athletics put up 21 runs on Tuesday against the Astros. The final score of the game was 21-7. If only looking at the cities, you would’ve thought it was the Oakland Raiders versus the Houston Texans. Anyways, the A’s should be able to exploit Burke in the Texas heat tonight. Fangraphs has him projected to give up 1.27 HRs tonight, the second-highest projection on the board.

SD @ COL

It’s Coors Field. Jeff Hoffman has a 7.06 ERA and 2.65 HR/9 rate on the season, so I like the Padres side more. Lucchesi can also be had, especially the Rockies good righties Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. Garrett Hampson is a solid cheap option as well.

Other Stacks: Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.

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