Welcome in. Hopefully, you were able to make some cash last night. We successfully called the Mike Brosseau and Max Kepler home runs, and we had a shot at going three for three, but unfortunately, Jose Ramirez exited early due to injury. Nonetheless, let’s get right back to it. Here are some core lineup plays for today.
Aaron Nola ($11,000 on DK and $10,700 on FD)
The match-up against the lowly Miami Marlins in a park pleasant to pitch in is too good to pass up. Despite having significantly worse numbers on the road this season, Nola has been a lot better recently. Over his last five road starts, Nola has a 1.90 ERA, giving up only seven ERs in 33.2 innings of work. Nola’s been dealing wherever he’s taken the mound, lately. Over his last 12 starts, he has a 2.13 ERA and 90 strikeouts in 80.1 innings pitched. The Marlins are last in majors with 108 home runs hit. They also strikeout 24.9% versus right-handed pitchers. Thus, setting up a high floor, high ceiling situation for Nola. Lock him in.
1B/3B Jake Lamb ($3,400 on DK and $2,800 on FD)
Lamb has been scuffling with a .205 average, but he still has plenty of power and has a nice cheap price tag. He is 2-8 with a bomb and four RBIs lifetime against Zach Davies. As we’ll talk about later, Davies has been bad at home this year. Plus, Davies has been worse to left-handed batters, allowing a homer per nine rate close to two and a .349 wOBA.
2B Jose Altuve ($5,100 on DK and $4,000 on FD)
Altuve is always an option. We normally like paying up for him against left-handed pitchers, but this is a spot where he could do major damage against a righty. Jaime Barria struggles more against right-handed hitters, allowing a .322 avg and .424 wOBA to them. Since July 1st, Altuve has hit .324 with 9 HRs and 23 RBIs versus right-handed pitchers. He’s also 4-9 (.444) in the small sample size against Barria.
1B/3B Yuli Gurriel ($4,800 on DK and $3,400 on FD)
Speaking of players that have hit right-handed pitching well since July 1st. During that time period, out of players with at least 100 plate-appearances, Gurriel leads the majors in batting average (.415), RBIs (44), and is tied for second in home runs (14). He’s also 3-6 with two RBIs and three doubles versus Barria.
OF Yasiel Puig ($4,400 on DK and $3,300 on FD)
Puig has a hit and a walk in each of his last two games. Eric Skoglund hasn’t pitched at the big league level yet this season, but in 2018, right-handed batters had a 42.3% hard contact rate against him. Puig’s price is too cheap for his power potential. I think Skoglund will struggle with the number of quality hitters in the Indians lineup. Puig will hit fourth in the order and should have plenty of opportunities to do major damage.
Houston Astros vs Jaime Barria
Barria has a 6.35 ERA, 2.38 homer per nine rate, and an ERA of 9.00 on the road this season. The Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Park could get filled with baseballs early and often.
Cleveland Indians vs Eric Skoglund
Skoglund will be making his first start of the season as he was just recalled from Triple-A Omaha. In 11 starts at Triple-A, Skoglund had a 6.14 ERA. He had a 5.14 ERA in the 14 games he pitched last season at the big league level.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Zach Davies
The last time Davies faced the Arizona Diamondbacks, he went 7 innings and only gave up 1 ER. He also struck out zero batters and had an xFIP of 7.91. The game took place in Arizona which is a better park for pitchers than Milwaukee. Today, the game is in Milwaukee where Davies owns a 4.66 ERA and 5.58 xFIP.
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