Justin Trease Aug 20th, 2019
For those new to the sports betting world, season-long prop bets are a great place to start. Are you one of the millions of people that play fantasy football? Great, while you are preparing for your fantasy draft. You are researching prop bets in parallel without realizing. During draft prep, you will become higher or lower on players for the season. You may believe a running back will breakout with a revamped offensive line. You may believe a wide receiver will have more yards because the offensive scheme changed. Use the research you did on fantasy to find the player prop bet that matches your beliefs. One thing I like about season prop bets is, it’s a marathon, not a sprint. You have 17 weeks to see if all your research in April-July were correct or not. Below are three Quarterback prop bets I believe are safe to take.
Quarterback Prop Bet #1
Player: Andy Dalton – 3725.5 Regular Season Passing Yards
Over: (-140)/Under (+100)
In Andy Dalton‘s career, he averages 3,512 passing yards per season. He has only surpassed 3,670 yards two times in his eight-year career, the last time being 2016. This offense is going through a complete make-over with new Head Coach Zac Taylor. Taylor comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree who runs the ball far more than the average fan realizes.
From his rookie to his sophomore campaigns, Joe Mixon saw his touches spike from 208 to 280. There is no reason to believe Joe Mixon will not surpass the three hundred touch mark this season. This will lead to Andy Dalton having less passing attempts. Dalton will start 2019 without his top weapon AJ Green, due to ankle surgery. The aging Green has missed sixteen games over the past five seasons. In 2018, Dalton played three games without Green. Dalton did not finish above 60% completion and averaged less than 155 passing yards. With all of this data, it points me to taking the under 3,725.5 passing yards.
Trease Bet: Under (+100)
Quarterback Prop Bet #2
Player: Matthew Stafford – 4000.5 Regular Season Passing Yards
Over: (-120)/Under (-120)
Let’s ignore the former 2009 number 1 overall pick winning % for this bet. Stafford’s reputation of being a gunslinger has produced seven 4,000 seasons. Since 2011, Stafford has thrown for over 4,200 yards in all but one season (last year). He also has 555+ pass attempts in all those seasons. I am optimistic Stafford gets back on track in 2019. Last season he was playing with a fracture in his back. The NFC North is littered with strong offenses. This will lead to Stafford needing to keep up.
With Kenny Golladay coming into his second full year as a starter. He and Marvin Jones can stretch the field to create space inside the hashes. Lions front office added 2 players this off-season to complement them. One of those players being slot receiver Danny Amendola. The other being the eighth pick in the 2019 NFL Draft TE T.J. Hockenson. That is a lot of pass-catching weapons on this team. Though I don’t love the +140 amount, I will take the production history on this bet.
Trease Bet: Over (-120)
Quarterback Prop Bet #3
Player: Kyler Murray – 3285.5 Regular Season Passing Yards
Over: (-130)/Under (-110)
The Arizona Cardinals will be down in the majority of their games this season. To surpass 3,285 yards in the season, Murray will need to average 206 yards per game. There is always concern the play style of Murray could lead to missed games. I believe Murray & Kingsbury want to prove a point this season. Even if he misses 2 games throughout the season, Murray will only need to average 235 passing yards per game. Murray will be the definition of garbage time stats in 2019. Think of Blake Bortles early in his career. In 2015 & 2016, Bortles had 4,400+ yards and 3,900+ yards. The Jaguars went a combined 8-24 in those 32 games. Kyler Murray is a far better prospect and passer than Blake was coming out.
The defense will be missing their leader and best defensive back Patrick Peterson for the first six games of the season. This will add to the struggles I believe this defense will have. If you watched any of the week 2 preseason game with Cardinals vs. Raiders, you can see it is clear this defense is going to give up a lot of big plays. If guys like Carr, Glennon, and Peterman can put up stats like that. I am very scared to see what Goff, Wilson and Jimmy G will be putting up. Moving back to the offensive side, with weapons like David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andy Isabella. I think they will use the short passing game as an extension to their ‘running game’, very similar to Patriots during the Wes Welker days. This bet comes with a little risk but if Murray stays healthy, I believe he passes 3,200 yards by early December.
Trease Bet: Over: (-130)
For more NFL content, be sure to tune into the ‘Talkin’ Football’ Podcast. Hosted by myself and Austin Cunningham.
Questions and comments?
Follow Us on Twitter @thescorecrow
Follow Us on Reddit at u/TheScorecrow
Follow Us on Facebook at The Scorecrow
Follow Us on Instagram at The Scorecrow
Facebook Group where you can read and post articles at The Scorecrow
Reddit Group where everyone can post without fear of being banned at The Scorecrow
Follow Justin Trease on Twitter @JustinTrease
Follow Coast to Coast Scouting on Twitter @CCScouting
Main Image Credit: Embed from Getty Images