MLB DFS: Locks, Two Bats, and Two Stacks for June 21, 2019

Friday night special. Get those lineups set. Let’s take a look at some locks, two bats, and two stacks for the main slate of games ahead.

Locks

Chris Sale ($12,000 on DK and FD)

Does it matter what his price is? Chris Sale has been downright nasty and striking out everyone lately. Sale has double-digit strikeouts in eight of his last nine games. The Toronto Blue Jays will try to load up on right-handed hitters against him, but Sale should still be able to strikeout quite a few. Strikeouts are key in daily fantasy. The Blue Jays also have a weak .299 wOBA against lefties this season.

Aaron Nola ($8,000 on DK and $8,700 on FD)

Soft matchup ahead for Nola vs the Miami Marlins. The wind should be blowing in around 10 MPH from left field as well. Nola has been up and down much of the season with a 4.89 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. He’s striking out 25.1% of batters but a big problem for him has been walks. Nola is walking batters at a 10% clip this season. The good news for him, the Marlins are tied for second worst in MLB with a 7.1% walk rate against right-handed pitchers.

Trevor Bauer ($11,100 on DK and $11,500 on FD)

Bauer has been picking it back up recently. In his last two starts, he has tossed 16.2 IP allowing 10 H, 1 R, and 14 strikeouts. The Detroit Tigers always have huge strikeout potential, striking out 26.4% of the time vs right-handed pitchers. Bauer’s last start was against these Detroit Tigers where he threw a complete game four-hit shutout.

Joe Musgrove ($5,500 on DK and $7,500 on FD)

In my estimation, the best value play on the board tonight. Musgrove has strikeout potential against the San Diego Padres. They’ve been hitting better, but strikeout the same rate as the Tigers, tied for the league lead at 26.4% against righties. The Padres also have a wOBA of only .307 against them.

Bats

1B Freddie Freeman ($4,900 and $4,400 on FD)

Freddie Freeman as a contrarian pick? Yes. That’s what he’ll be tonight because he will be going up against Stephen Strasburg. The name alone will scare people off attacking against, but Freeman has hit Strasburg well in the past. With a good sample size, Freeman is 17-50 (.340) with 4 HR and 16 RBI lifetime vs Strasburg.

2B Jose Altuve ($3,800 on DK and FD)

Altuve is only 1-9 since returing to the Astros lineup, but he is way too cheap for his talent. James Paxton isn’t a pitcher we normally would target against, but DFS is all about finding value and being able to fit in some of these high priced guys in good spots. Altuve is 9-28 (.321) with two homers and a .978 OPS vs Paxton.

Stacks

CWS @ TEX

Both sides of this game make sense to stack. It should be hot and humid in Texas, and when that’s the case, the ball has a tendency to fly. Reynaldo Lopez has a 6.31 ERA and 2.10 HR/9 rate this season. Meanwhile, Ariel Jurado is coming off an outing where he lasted just three innings and allowed nine hits and seven earned runs.

Washington Nationals vs Dallas Keuchel

This is definitely not a popular opinion as I’m sure plenty of people are excited to see Keuchel make his 2019 debut with his new ball club. But remember, he hasn’t pitched all season against big league hitters. Out of the hitters that will be in the Nationals lineup, in 57 at-bats, they are hitting .404 with 2 HR and 6 RBI against Keuchel. Probably more of a tournament stack, but I wouldn’t mind a couple of them in cash games.

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