Frank Dyevoich | October 7th, 2018
This week there are some tremendous matchups that need to be taken advantage of. We have been doing well thus far, but with some teams sitting at 0-4 or 1-3, it is more important than ever that we nail these pics. Here are the players I think you should start or sit based on their matchup in Week 5.
Blake Bortles vs. KC – With Leonard Fournette out, Bortles should be throwing more in a pass-heavy game script. The Chiefs are also bottom of the league in pass and run defense, so Bortles should not have a difficult time moving the ball. Projection: 341 yards, 2 TDs,1 INT, 36 rush yards and 1 TD
Matt Ryan vs. PIT – This will be the highest scoring game of the week. With a banged up defense, Ryan will have to be aggressive to keep pace or catch up, and the Steelers are giving up just as many fantasy points to opposing QBs. Either way, this game shakes out, Ryan will have a day. Projection: 370 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT.
Ben Roethlisberger vs. ATL – Coming off of a rare home loss, Big Ben and his receivers are hungry for a win. They will move the ball with ease, in fact, this could be Big Ben’s highest scoring fantasy day of the season. Everyone in this offense should eat on Sunday. Projection: 410 yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INT.
Aaron Jones vs. DET – It is obvious to anyone with eyes that Aaron Jones is the best running back on this team and it is not close. He earned more snaps after a beautiful blitz pickup last week, and he is facing the worst running defense in the league. With all of the WRs banged up on this team, I expect a run-heavy game script. Projection: 95 yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions for 22 yards.
Derrick Henry vs. BUF – This is shaping up to be a Henry game for several reasons. His team should be winning rather early and Henry is excellent at killing the clock. The Bills also have an atrocious run defense so Henry should find some rare success in the ground this week. Projection: 83 yards and 1 TD.
Joe Mixon vs. MIA – Mixon is back, and he is the only show in town this week in the juiciest of matchups. Every week this defense gets lit up on the ground and this week will be no different. Expect Mixon’s highest-scoring week in this one with plenty of receiving work as well. Projection: 115 yards, 1 TD, 5 receptions for 49 yards and 1 TD.
TJ. Yeldon vs. KC – Yeldon is also the only show in town for this game, and the defense has been very generous to opposing RBs. He should be very productive on the ground in this game and I expect a large role for Yeldon in the receiving game this week. The Chiefs have not been stopped yet, and if they continue to put up big points, Blake Bortles will be in catchup mode which means tons of check downs for Yeldon. Projection: 87 yards, 1 TD, 6 receptions for 53 yards.
Jay Ajayi vs. MIN – Ajayi has been surprisingly efficient with his touches this season, and with Corey Clement sidelined this week he should finally get a full workload. They face a tough secondary this week, but a banged-up defensive front, so I expect success in the run game and a grind it out mentality in the second half. Projection: 92 yards, 1 TD, and 3 reception for 26 yards.
Taywan Taylor vs. BUF – With Corey Davis set to be covered by TreDavious White all game, Taylor should find plenty of open space on the other side and in the slot. Couple his explosive speed with his expected opportunity and this has the makings for a sneaky good fantasy day. Projection: 6 receptions for 72 yards and 1 TD.
Jordy Nelson vs. LAC – Expect Amari Cooper to be shadowed by Casey Hayward, who has shut him down completely in their recent meetings. The Chargers are also very good against tight ends this year so Jared Cook might not get all targets he has been seeing recently. With Derek Carr set to be slinging it all game again, there should be plenty of opportunity and production for Jordy, who still has some gas left in the tank. Projection: 6 receptions for 83 yards and 1 TD.
Tyler Boyd vs. MIA – Boyd should continue to see tons of targets this week. A.J. Green will be shadowed by Xavien Howard, who has been one of the best corners in the league this year, so most of the targets will be tossed Boyd’s way. He is becoming one of this year’s first breakout stars. Projection: 8 receptions for 103 yards and 1 TD.
Keelan Kole vs. KC – The Jaguars should be in a pass-heavy game script this week, and since Cole was the only one who didn’t go off last week, his number should be called often on Sunday. Dede Westbrook was the guy last week due to his matchup with Buster Skrine, but this week Cole should be the go-to guy against an awful passing defense. Projection: 6 receptions for 91 yards and 1 TD.
Mohamed Sanu vs. PIT – Even though Calvin Ridley has exploded as of late, Sanu is still running more routes, getting more targets and more receptions. This week against a very beatable secondary. Sanu should join the others in the fantasy points bonanza. Projection: 7 receptions for 62 yards and 1 TD.
Austin Hooper vs. PIT – Hooper is a very good candidate to score a TD this week. He faces a week secondary, and all the defensive attention will be focused on Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. In a game that should be a total shootout, Hooper is a rather safe option to roll out there this week. Projection: 4 receptions for 47 yards and 1 TD.
Jimmy Graham vs. DET – This comes down to a matter of availability. All the WRs are banged-up so Jimmy might be the only starting option in the receiving game this week. I expect a large target share for him and give him an excellent chance at a TD. Projection: 6 receptions for 58 yards and 1 TD.
Case Keenum vs. NYJ – The fact of the matter is Keenum has not looked great this year, and this secondary is no pushover. Emmanuel Sanders should have a good game coming out of the slot, but it won’t be enough to make Keenum worth starting. Add in the fact that this defense is vulnerable on the ground and it spells low volume and low production for Keenum. Projection: 226 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs.
Marcus Mariota vs. BUF – It’s never an easy task to go into Buffalo, and Mariota is a shaky start because of it. Add in the fact that Corey Davis will be locked down by Tredavious White and Mariota will not have much success through the air. He should also have a lead relatively early so expect a run-heavy game script in this one. Projection: 195 yards, 1 TD, 30 rush yards and 1 INT.
Baker Mayfield vs. BAL – Baker is about to face his toughest challenge yet. Jimmy Smith is back, locking up both sides of the field in the Ravens secondary and their pass rush is just as lethal. This should be a brutal low scoring affair for the team. Projection: 265 yards, 2 TDs, 3 rush for 26 yards, 1 FUM, 2 INTs.
Carlos Hyde vs. BAL – It is hard to recommend sitting Hyde because of the volume he gets, but this week is the one to do it. He should be trailing early and he may be phased out of the game-script in the second half. You are likely starting him, but if you have a better option or a player with real upside, I’d give Hyde the week off. Projection: 71 yards, 2 receptions for 21 yards.
Isaiah Crowell vs. DEN – This one is a no-brainer. Crowell has been pitiful when it comes to touch efficiency, and this stout defense will not give him much space to run. He should be trailing pretty early and this game favors Bilal Powell’s strengths. Look elsewhere for you RB2/FLEX this week. Projection: 31 yards, 2 receptions for 11 yards.
Dalvin Cook/Latavius Murray vs. PHI – Cook is a game-time decision, and even if he is active, he can’t be started with any sort of confidence. They look horrible running the ball and neither he nor Latavius Murray have found any success. Due to their banged-up offensive line, neither of these guys can be started against a tough defensive front such as this. Projection: 27 yards, 3 receptions for 32 yards and 1 FUM.
LeSean McCoy vs. TEN – Shady is unstartable until further notice. The offensive line is the worst in the league and it’s not going to get any better. They are always going to be trailing and anytime Shady is on the field, he’s the only guy the defense needs to worry about. Further, this defense has been sneaky good this season so leave Shady on your bench and look to trade him if he manages to have a good week sometime soon. Projection: 41 yards, 1 FUM and 3 receptions for 22 yards.
Chris Carson vs. LAR – This backfield is a disaster. Carson is not fully healthy and now Mike Davis has thrown his name in the ring as part of this rotation with Carson and Rashaad Penny. The offensive line is devoid of talent and you can’t feel safe starting any one of these RBs. Throw in a brutal matchup on top of it and you have to leave all three of these guys on the bench. Projection: 51 yards and 3 receptions for 18 yards.
Amari Cooper vs. LAC – Every time Cooper has faced off against Casey Hayward he has been shut down. Coming off of a stellar performance, I fully expect Cooper to crush fantasy owners’ hopes that things were about turn around. He has yet to put down two straight top 20 performances and it is not going to happen this week either. Projection: 4 receptions for 31 yards.
Marquise Goodwin vs. AZ – Goodwin cannot be in any of your starting lineups until further notice. CJ Beathard does not chuck it deep, and that is where Goodwin makes his money. Until we see a shift in offensive philosophy, Goodwin is best served riding the bench. Projection: 3 receptions for 38 yards.
Michael Crabtree vs. CLE – The Browns’ secondary is extremely vulnerable. However, the one bright spot is rookie cornerback Denzel Ward. Crabtree is a savvy veteran so he won’t be shut down completely, but this game won’t be the breakout performance we are all waiting for. Projection: 5 receptions for 53 yards.
Larry Fitzgerald vs. SF – Larry is not fully healthy and it shows. He is having a hard time gaining separation and his cuts are not as sharp as we are used to seeing. Things do not look great on this team right now, and until Josh Rosen can right the ship. The wise move is to leave Larry Legend on the bench. Projection: 4 receptions for 36 yards.
Devin Funchess vs. NYG – This week Funchess will be locked down by Janoris Jenkins, who is coming off of a stellar performance where he shut down the best WR so far: Michael Thomas. Cam Newton is going to rely on Christian McCaffery and we may see the beginning of DJ Moore’s emergence. Projection: 5 receptions for 49 yards.
There is no tight end sit recommendations at this point because if you have any tight end at all, you need to start them. The position is a complete disaster this year and if there is a tight end out there with two legs who can catch a football, he is likely owned. However, there are a couple of matchups where you should temper your expectations.
Jared Cook vs. LAC – This defense has been very stingy against tight ends this year, having only allowed one TD to the position. Add in the fact that Marshawn Lynch will find plenty of running room in this one, and Jordy Nelson will face soft coverage all game, and it has the makings of a mediocre week for Cook. Projection: 6 receptions for 53 yards.
George Kittle vs. AZ – This one comes down to game script. The team should have no issues running the ball and Kittle just won’t need to be relied on this week. Obviously, you are starting him, but temper expectations and shoot your dart elsewhere in daily fantasy. Projection: 5 receptions for 61 yards.
Questions and comments?
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